Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick

 

A battle of NFC playoff hopefuls happens on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It’s hard to call it a surprise when a team that went 13-3 in 2019 starts 4-0 in 2020. The Packers weren’t even picked to win their own division this year. Instead, they sit atop the NFC North and are 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 on the over/under.

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The Buccaneers started the season with a win over the Saints in Tom Brady’s debut with the team. They’re 2-2 since but still in a three-way tie for the lead in the NFC South. Against the spread, they stand at 2-3 and are slightly better at 3-2 on the over/under.

Not What They Seem

The Packers, while looking like a juggernaut, have only beaten one team with a winning record. Their opponents are a combined 5-15 so far in 2020, and three of those wins are by the Saints.

The Buccaneers also have one win against a team over .500. That would also be the Saints. But their other two wins came against teams that are a combined 2-8. Their losses are both to teams with winning records.

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Betting Lines

The Packers are slim 1-point favorites over the Bucs, and the over/under is 54.5. The two teams are combining for almost 66 points a game. Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up just 22.4 points, while the Packers allow just over 25.

Green Bay hasn’t just covered the spread in every game; it has obliterated it by an average of 11 points. The closest it has come to not covering was a 30-16 win over Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites. Weak schedule or not, that’s an impressive record.

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Game Preview

The most impressive aspect of Green Bay’s good start has been the play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s considered to be the best at his position in the league, and he’s played like it so far. His completion rate is just over 70%, and he’s throwing for over 300 yards a game.

Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdown passes to six different players without giving up an interception. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and has added 31 yards rushing on six carries. As a team, the Packers are also running the ball for over 150 yards a game.

Their rushing attack is led by Aaron Jones, averaging 94 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. He has four rushing touchdowns and also 15 receptions for 135 yards and another pair of scores. This two-headed attack has the Packers averaging over 454 yards a game in total offense.

The Buccaneers have been relying on their defense, especially against the run. They’re giving up less than 60 yards a game and only 2.7 yards per attempt. If the Packers are going to be successful against Tampa Bay’s defense, it will most likely be through the air. Although the Packers had a Week 5 bye, take a look at NFL Week 5 by the numbers.

Green Bay’s defense is giving up the same yards per game as Tampa Bay is averaging on offense. That means we can probably expect the Bucs to get their 28 or 30 points. The big question is whether Green Bay will be able to impose its will offensively on the Tampa Bay defense.

I think they will, so take the Packers, lay the slim point spread and go with the over. It looks like a 34-28 win for Green Bay.

Did you see our last free pick here at TopRankSportsPicks.com? It was for the Lakers vs. Rockets Game 4. We crushed the spread and total!