NBA Free
Pick | Nets at Heat
After
losing six straight, the Miami Heat have won six of their last nine games. They
have dropped their last two games though, to Denver and Phoenix.
Sunday
offers another tough test for the Heat. Brooklyn comes to town and has beaten
the Heat twice already this season. With the Heat’s playoff future hanging in
the balance, bettors can find value in Sunday’s total.
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Game:
Brooklyn Nets (37-18, 27-28 ATS) at Miami Heat (28-27, 23-31-1 ATS)
When: 3:30
PM ET, Sunday, April 18, 2021
Where:
American Airlines Arena, Miami, Florida
Current
Line: OFF Total:
OFF
TV Coverage:
ESPN
We nailed our
last pick when we took the Fighting Illini in our Illinois at Ohio
State betting preview.
Brooklyn
has won just five of its last 14 games. The Nets have battled injuries to their
Big Three all season long. Kevin Durant just recently returned to the lineup.
He actually sat out the Nets most recent game, a loss to Eastern Conference
leader Philadelphia.
James
Harden, who has a hamstring issue just like Durant, has been out of the lineup
since April 5 when he played just four minutes in a win over the Knicks. Harden
will not play Sunday. Durant remains questionable but is likely to play.
Related
Link > 2021
NBA MVP Updated Odds
With Durant
and Kyrie Irving in the lineup, Brooklyn looks to claim win No. 3 over the Heat
this season. Besides playing without Harden, the Nets will find a win difficult
to come by because of Miami’s defense.
The Heat
rank sixth in defensive efficiency rating and third in points allowed per game
(107.5). Miami lost two of its last three games, but they held Portland to 107
points and Phoenix to 106.
In Miami’s last
game against Brooklyn, the Heat defense allowed just 98 points to the Nets.
Remember, Brooklyn is second in the NBA in scoring averaging 118.8 points per
game.
What also
plays to the Heat’s advantage is returning home. In their last home stand,
Miami held Cleveland to 101 points, Golden State to 109, and the Lakers to 104.
That defense is something that has helped the total go 29-26 in Heat games this
season.
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On the
other end, Miami is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the NBA.
They rank 28th and shoot just 34.5 percent from behind the arc. In the previous
two games against Brooklyn, Miami shot 28.3 percent and 25.6 from three-point
range. The Heat ranks just 26th in scoring (106.2 ppg) for the season.
The key in
playing in the Under in this matchup on Sunday will be where the total comes
in. In the first two games, the totals were 232 and 237. Those totals reflect
the Nets proficiency for scoring. Plus, Brooklyn played with Irving, Harden,
and Durant in those two games.
Expect
Sunday’s total to be a bit lower and possibly lower than 230. While Brooklyn
can fill it up, they will be without one of their stars and said star - Harden
- averages 25.4 points per game. It won’t be easy making that up.
With
Miami’s ability to defend - plus the fact that they are finally healthy -
expect the Heat to control the pace of the game and keep this a low-scoring
game. Our free
pick is to play the Under down to 230.
NBA Free
Pick: UNDER down to 230