What Is Middling in Sportsbetting?

 

Middling is an interesting strategy that can help guarantee a win for sports bettors. The key comes in understanding the strategy, how it works, and when to take advantage of it.

Betting lines will fluctuate prior to closing before game time. In the NFL for example, lines on a weekend’s games will open roughly a week before game time. Lots of things can happen in a week’s time to affect a betting line.

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An injury during the week of practice, for example, could knock out a key player. Oddsmakers will adjust betting lines accordingly. Middling takes advantage of these changing lines.

Middling Definition

Simply put, middling in sports betting is a strategy that involves placing wagers on both sides of a bet. The idea is to ultimately win both wagers, but at the very least the bettor is guaranteed at least one win.

Examples of middling help to explain the concept even better.

Middling an NFL Bet

Middling works very well in NFL betting for a couple reasons.

One is the time between when lines on a game open and when they close. A line on a Sunday game typically opens the previous Sunday night or Monday morning. That leaves plenty of time for a line to change at top online sportsbooks like America’s Bookie.

Middling also is suited for NFL betting because of the somewhat predictable final margins of victory in NFL games.

More NFL games finish with a final margin of victory of 3 than any other number. That margin occurs in more than 14 percent of NFL games. You’ll see from our NFL picks, that using key numbers helps you win more bets. Knowing that can help bettors who use middling as a strategy.

Example of Middling

Let’s take a random NFL example. The Texans are playing the Jaguars and Houston is a 2.5-point favorite when the lines open on a Monday morning before the following Sunday’s game.

                        Jacksonville     +2.5 (-110)

                        Houston           -2.5 (-110)

The Texans are playing at home and you like them to win and cover. If they win by at least 3 - a key number - you have yourself a winning ticket.

Later in the week, the latest injury report comes out and oddsmakers quickly adjust the line so that the Texans are now favored by 3.5. 

Jacksonville     +3.5 (-110)

                        Houston           -3.5 (-110)

This is your opportunity to middle the bet. With the new line released, you place a wager on the other side of the bet. You take the Jags to cover +3.5 at your best online sportsbook. Now, here’s what can happen. There are three potential outcomes.

If the Texans win by three points or more, your initial bet on Houston -2.5 wins but the other bet loses. If the Texans win but by fewer than three points, your bet on the Jags +3.5 wins and the other loses.

If the Texans win by three - and remember three is the most common margin of victory in the NFL - then both bets win. You would like the final margin to be three, the “middle” of your two wagers.

Football, particularly NFL football, gives bettors great opportunities for middling. There are other key numbers too like 6, 7, and 14 all of which occur over 4.8 percent of the time. That means bettors can search for middling opportunities around those key numbers.

Do you need more NFL betting education? Check out our current article on What is a Teaser & How to Bet Them.