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Betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs


Let’s talk about betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs.

Key Points

– There are a number of strategies a bettor can use when betting on the 2022 NHL playoffs.

– Bettors can also use advanced metrics like Corsi percentage to help their betting endeavors.

Betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs

NHL bettors looking to make their season should begin preparing for what should be an exciting 2022 NHL playoff season.

There are a number of betting options for bettors to consider as teams navigate through the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Here are some strategies to utilize for success.

Are you familiar with today’s top betting trends? We wrote about them recently.

Stanley Cup Futures

Since 2009, only seven different teams have won the Stanley Cup. The Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins have each won three times and the Los Angeles Kings have won twice. Tampa Bay has won each of the last two Stanley Cup titles.

Of the ten teams to win the Cup since the lockout in 2004-05, only two teams - St. Louis and Carolina - have won it after missing the playoffs the prior season.

For most of the 2021-22 season, the Colorado Avalanche have been the favorite to capture the Stanley Cup. The great thing about Stanley Cup futures is that you can typically find even the overall favorite at favorable plus-money odds.

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Finding Value in Game 2

Remember the first two games of a playoff series are played at the home of the higher seeded team. After Game 1 has been played, there is a strategy that pays off in betting Game 2.

Always bet the lower seed, which is going to be the road team. Typically, the road team will be the underdog in Game 2 even if they managed to win Game 1. Betting road underdogs at your offshore sportsbook in playoff Game 2s has been profitable.

Since 2007-08, the lower seed has won 51 of 120 games. That’s only 39 percent, but because you’re betting at plus-money your ROI is positive.

Recency Bias When Betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs

Another strategy that has produced results involves betting on Game 5 of a playoff series when the series is 3-1 in favor of the higher-seeded team. Betting the NHL Playoffs have seen some great trends recently.

Since 2007-08, the numbers say that betting on the lower-seeded team is the smart move and there’s one situation where a play on lower seed almost guarantees a win.

In most any sport, bettors tend to place too much on performance in recent games. In Game 5s where the higher seed won the first three games and then the lower seed took Game 4, the lower seed won seven of 11 Game 5s.

In a series where the lower seed won Game 1 and then the higher seed swept the next three games, bettors wagering on the lower seed saw an ROI of 87.1 percent. The betting public typically sees the three straight wins and places too much emphasis there. It makes sense then to bet the lower seed which is typically an underdog in a Game 5 played at the higher seed’s home.

Advanced NHL Metrics

There tends to be some correlation between an advanced metric - Corsi percentage - and winning the Stanley Cup. Maybe this is too confusing? Check out our free picks!

Over the past ten seasons, the Stanley Cup champion finished in the top-10 in Corsi percentage eight times. Of those eight, six of the Cup winners finished in the top-5.

Corsi percentage simply measures puck possession in an opponent’s zone in even strength situations. Essentially, the more you possess the puck in the opponent’s end, the more opportunities you have to score.

It’s probably wise to check Corsi numbers while betting the 2022 NHL playoffs.

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