Betting the 2022
NHL Playoffs
Let’s talk about
betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs.
Key
Points
– There are a number
of strategies a bettor can use when betting on the 2022 NHL playoffs.
– Bettors can also
use advanced metrics like Corsi percentage to help their betting endeavors.
Betting
the 2022 NHL Playoffs
NHL bettors looking to make their season
should begin preparing for what should be an exciting 2022 NHL playoff season.
There are a number
of betting options for bettors to consider as teams navigate through the
Stanley Cup playoffs.
Here are some
strategies to utilize for success.
Are you familiar
with today’s top betting trends? We wrote
about them recently.
Stanley
Cup Futures
Since 2009, only
seven different teams have won the Stanley Cup. The Chicago
Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins have each won three times and the Los
Angeles Kings have won twice. Tampa Bay has won each of the last two Stanley
Cup titles.
Of the ten teams to
win the Cup since the lockout in 2004-05, only two teams - St. Louis and
Carolina - have won it after missing the playoffs the prior season.
For most of the
2021-22 season, the Colorado Avalanche have been the favorite to capture the
Stanley Cup. The great thing about Stanley Cup futures is that you can
typically find even the overall favorite at favorable plus-money odds.
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Finding
Value in Game 2
Remember the first
two games of a playoff series are played at the home of the higher seeded team.
After Game 1 has been played, there is a strategy that pays off in betting Game
2.
Always bet the lower
seed, which is going to be the road team. Typically, the road team will be the
underdog in Game 2 even if they managed to win Game 1. Betting road underdogs at
your offshore
sportsbook in playoff Game 2s has been profitable.
Since 2007-08, the
lower seed has won 51 of 120 games. That’s only 39 percent, but because you’re
betting at plus-money your ROI is positive.
Recency
Bias When Betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs
Another strategy
that has produced results involves betting on Game 5 of a playoff series when
the series is 3-1 in favor of the higher-seeded team. Betting the
NHL Playoffs have seen some great trends recently.
Since 2007-08, the
numbers say that betting on the lower-seeded team is the smart move and there’s
one situation where a play on lower seed almost guarantees a win.
In most any sport,
bettors tend to place too much on performance in recent games. In Game 5s where
the higher seed won the first three games and then the lower seed took Game 4,
the lower seed won seven of 11 Game 5s.
In a series where
the lower seed won Game 1 and then the higher seed swept the next three games,
bettors wagering on the lower seed saw an ROI of 87.1 percent. The betting
public typically sees the three straight wins and places too much emphasis
there. It makes sense then to bet the lower seed which is typically an underdog
in a Game 5 played at the higher seed’s home.
Advanced
NHL Metrics
There tends to be
some correlation between an advanced metric - Corsi percentage - and winning
the Stanley Cup. Maybe this is too confusing? Check out our free picks!
Over the past ten
seasons, the Stanley Cup champion finished in the top-10 in Corsi percentage
eight times. Of those eight, six of the Cup winners finished in the top-5.
Corsi percentage
simply measures puck possession in an opponent’s zone in even strength
situations. Essentially, the more you possess the puck in the opponent’s end,
the more opportunities you have to score.
It’s probably wise
to check Corsi numbers while betting the 2022 NHL playoffs.
