Big Line Moves in Sports Betting
All you need to know
about big line moves in sports betting.
Key Points
– Understanding what
causes big line moves benefits sports bettors.
– The ability to
predict changes in betting lines is a skill worth honing.
Big
Line Moves in Sports Betting
When you first begin
betting on sports, you might believe that the spread for a football game is set
at the start of the week and never changes. When the media talks about the
spread, they usually portray it as a number that doesn’t change. That couldn’t
be farther from the truth.
Point spreads are
far from being fixed. They respond to certain factors and change to reflect
them. Sometimes these adjustments are minor, but other times we can observe the
lines moving by a number of points, sometimes very quickly. Bettors should have
a quality
online betting portal to check these line moves.
Here, we examine
some factors that lead to big line moves. We also look at why sports bettors
find line movement intriguing and why bettors should consider line moves when
placing bets.
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Early
Errors Cause Big Line Moves
Before the books
release the lines, sharp bettors - those that bet large sums of money
frequently - have already decided what a line should be.
If a betting line is
significantly different from what they believe it should be, those sharp
bettors will make aggressive bets as soon as they are out. This aggressive
betting will cause lines to move quickly to correct the error and slow down any
more heavy betting action.
In the NFL for
example, big line moves like this occur before most bettors awaken on a Monday
morning. The line shifts can be substantial.
Consistent
Money on One Side
Theoretically,
sportsbooks try to get a balanced amount of betting action on both sides of a
bet. The books are guaranteed to make money no matter what happens in the game
if the same amount of money has been wagered on both sides. Half of the money
is on the winner. The other half is on the loser, which pays out to the
winners. The books get to keep the juice on the losing bets.
Speaking of books,
make sure you have a trusted
sportsbook that allows you to wager anytime, anywhere, on any sport.
Books are sometimes
okay with unbalanced action if they are willing to gamble on the possibility of
greater financial gain. However, they generally want the action to be as close
as possible.
The books make big
line moves to make one side of a bet more desirable when a significant portion
of the money comes in on the other side. The potential line move increases with
the degree of imbalance in the action.
Injuries
& Personnel Issues
It happens from time
to time. A critical injury can cause a line to shift significantly. Consider
the scenario where Peyton Manning was hurt during a practice on Tuesday before
an Indianapolis Colts game on Sunday.
With Manning’s
ability to play in question, the line moved accordingly. When backup Curtis
Painter was announced as the starter, the line adjusted even more.
Big line moves can
be caused by serious injuries, lengthy suspensions, trades, and other
significant personnel changes.
Weather
Can Cause Big Line Moves
Weather is another
factor that affects betting lines. If the weather forecast changes
significantly after the lines have been set, the line may need to be adjusted.
This affects how you bet on football.
For instance, a team
that relies heavily on the passing game might not be as appealing in a game
where bitter cold, high winds, and snow is expected. In NFL games played
outdoors, the most significant weather element is wind.
Wind seriously
affects NFL games because the league does rely on the passing game so much. The
wind speed also affects special teams and big line moves happen in conjunction
with changes in the forecast.
Just a few years
ago, Buffalo and New England played a game in which winds speeds were over 30
miles per hour. The game total had opened in the low 40s. By kickoff, the line
had dropped under 40. The final score was 14-10.
In particularly
severe situations like that one, sportsbooks may move the lines significantly
on their own before being forced to do so by betting activity.
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Public
Action
If you keep an eye
on the public betting action, you may notice a line move that doesn't make
sense. Remember, the public loves favorites. In high-profile games, oddsmakers
know that the public will bet on the favorite no matter what. They build that
into their opening line and the line will adjust as more money comes in on the
favorite.
There are times,
however, when very large plays are made on the underdog. This causes a line
shift opposite of what is expected. This “reverse line movement” happens
because of sharp money (professional bettors) going all-in on an underdog.
Smart bettors who
can spot this type of line move can piggy-back on what sharp bettors are doing
and capitalize as a result.
Pay Attention
to Key Numbers
Books detest moving
lines through important numbers. In the NFL, one of the numbers is 3. Books
don’t like it because they are more likely to be middled. Bettors can get on
either side of a number and win both bets. Check out this article on middling in sports betting to learn
more.
When they do,
sportsbooks can lose a lot of money. That’s why they avoid adjusting through
key numbers. If there is a big line move through a key number, you can bet
there is a very good reason.
Remember,
sportsbooks are in the business of making money.
Handling
Big Line Moves
If you develop a
knack for predicting big line moves, you will have a lot of success as a
bettor. There are times when a line move is a surprise. Often, bettors can
anticipate a line adjustment. When you can predict a move, you can use that to
your advantage before placing a wager. It might be an instance where you adjust your betting unit size.
In those situations,
you should place your bet on a favorite as soon as you can take advantage of
the best odds. With underdogs, you have to be patient. Numbers typically become
more appealing on underdogs the closer you get to game time.
