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Betting the NBA Finals


Betting the NBA Finals is a bittersweet experience for basketball fanatics.

Key Points

– The NBA Finals provides bettors with numerous chances to win.

– There are a number of strategies bettors can use to maximize their winnings during the NBA Finals.

Betting the NBA Finals

Each and every year, the NBA Finals provides bettors with ample opportunities for betting success. With a potential seven games on tap, there are numerous chances to win on traditional bets as well as in the futures and props market.

There are some things to keep in mind when betting the NBA Finals. Call them strategies if you like, but here are a few tips that can help.

Must Read > Make the Most Out of Betting the NBA Finals

Fade Teams Off Game 7

It’s hard to know the exact impact of playing a seven-game NBA playoff series. One thing's for sure though. Teams that have to go a full seven games are fatigued.

That fatigue usually carries over into the next series, especially when playing an opponent that did not go a full seven games. Online bookmakers will take these factors into account.

In the last 81 occurrences of an NBA playoff team winning a Game 7, that team has gone on to lose 49 times in Game 1 of the following series.

Another key piece of information is that those teams that won a Game and then lost a Game 1 only won that next series 41 percent of the time.

NBA Finals Unders

Pace throughout the entire NBA playoffs slows down from that of the regular season. Typically, teams average about 2.5 fewer possessions per game. That means fewer opportunities to score and fewer points.

Prior to this postseason, the previous seven postseasons combined saw the Under cash nearly 55 percent of the time. Should an NBA Finals series go to a deciding seventh game, the Game 7 Under is even more profitable.

In a playoff Game 7, the Under hits over 61 percent of the time. The NBA Finals have only gone a full seven games twice in over a decade. These are some great stats when betting the NBA Finals.

How are your playoff hockey wagers going? Hopefully you read our article, betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs.

Betting the NBA Finals - Series Pricing

Sometimes, the favorite to win the NBA Finals is priced a bit too high. In some years, there is simply a clear cut favorite. In those cases, the price is just too steep for the smart bettor. Whatever the price is, always shop for the best betting lines. Find value betting offshore. You'll get a variety of juice prices.

What the smart bettor can do is to wait for that favorite to lose Game 1 or 2, preferably Game 1. The resulting adjustments in price may make taking the favorite worthwhile at that point.

Keep in mind that in the NBA playoffs as a whole teams that win Game 1 of a series win that series 77.9 percent of the time. This can help you when reading NBA Playoff betting lines.

If you are going to back a team that is down in a series, it should be because they are playing below their expectations and are the better team in the series.

Zig Zag Theory

Zig Zag theory in betting is one where you basically bet the opposite of what happened in the previous game. The idea is that a team that lost will bounce back quicker in a playoff series where they can be eliminated. Will that really work when betting the NBA Finals?

Blindly doing this simply doesn’t work, but there is one situation that you may look for in the NBA Finals.

Playoff teams seeded in the top-3 (which NBA Finals teams typically are) do very well coming off a Game 1 loss. Since 2005 in 47 such occurrences, the Game 1 loser has come back to cover the spread in Game 2 64 percent of the time (30-17 ATS).

Are you ready to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Check out an online racebook.

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