Betting the NBA Finals
Betting the NBA
Finals is a bittersweet experience for basketball fanatics.
Key Points
– The NBA Finals
provides bettors with numerous chances to win.
– There are a number
of strategies bettors can use to maximize their winnings during the NBA Finals.
Betting
the NBA Finals
Each and every year,
the NBA Finals provides bettors with ample opportunities for betting success.
With a potential seven games on tap, there are numerous chances to win on
traditional bets as well as in the futures and props market.
There are some
things to keep in mind when betting the NBA Finals. Call them strategies if you
like, but here are a few tips that can help.
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Make the Most Out of Betting the NBA Finals
Fade
Teams Off Game 7
It’s hard to know
the exact impact of playing a seven-game NBA playoff series. One thing's for
sure though. Teams that have to go a full seven games are fatigued.
That fatigue usually
carries over into the next series, especially when playing an opponent that did
not go a full seven games. Online bookmakers will take these factors into
account.
In the last 81
occurrences of an NBA playoff team winning a Game 7, that team has gone on to
lose 49 times in Game 1 of the following series.
Another key piece of
information is that those teams that won a Game and then lost a Game 1 only won
that next series 41 percent of the time.
NBA
Finals Unders
Pace throughout the
entire NBA playoffs slows down from that of the
regular season. Typically, teams average about 2.5 fewer possessions per game.
That means fewer opportunities to score and fewer points.
Prior to this
postseason, the previous seven postseasons combined saw the Under cash nearly
55 percent of the time. Should an NBA Finals series go to a deciding seventh
game, the Game 7 Under is even more profitable.
In a playoff Game 7,
the Under hits over 61 percent of the time. The NBA Finals have only gone a
full seven games twice in over a decade. These are some great stats when
betting the NBA Finals.
How are your playoff
hockey wagers going? Hopefully you read our article, betting the 2022 NHL Playoffs.
Betting
the NBA Finals - Series Pricing
Sometimes, the
favorite to win the NBA Finals is priced a bit too high. In some years, there
is simply a clear cut favorite. In those cases, the price is just too steep for
the smart bettor. Whatever the price is, always shop for the best betting
lines. Find value betting offshore. You'll get a
variety of juice prices.
What the smart
bettor can do is to wait for that favorite to lose Game 1 or 2, preferably Game
1. The resulting adjustments in price may make taking the favorite worthwhile
at that point.
Keep in mind that in
the NBA playoffs as a whole teams that win Game 1 of a series win that series
77.9 percent of the time. This can help you when reading NBA Playoff betting lines.
If you are going to
back a team that is down in a series, it should be because they are playing
below their expectations and are the better team in the series.
Zig Zag
Theory
Zig Zag theory in
betting is one where you basically bet the opposite of what happened in the
previous game. The idea is that a team that lost will bounce back quicker in a
playoff series where they can be eliminated. Will that really work when betting
the NBA Finals?
Blindly doing this
simply doesn’t work, but there is one situation that you may look for in the
NBA Finals.
Playoff teams seeded
in the top-3 (which NBA Finals teams typically are) do very well coming off a
Game 1 loss. Since 2005 in 47 such occurrences, the Game 1 loser has come back
to cover the spread in Game 2 64 percent of the time (30-17 ATS).
Are you ready to bet on the
Belmont Stakes? Check out an online racebook.